The 2026 IPO Market: What High-Stakes Shareholders Need to Understand Now
Chaim Schiff, CEO of The Elephant Secondary Group, breaks down what major shareholders need to know as the IPO market regains momentum
The venture market is closely watching the recently completed SpaceX IPO and the expected IPOs of OpenAI, and Anthropic both of which are expected to go public in 2026. Once these IPOs are completed, they would represent the three largest VC-backed offerings to date and could generate more exit value than all VC-backed IPOs combined since 2000.
For GPs, LPs, and early investors, these prospects are compelling. However, the underlying mechanics require careful consideration.
Unprecedented Scale, Unprecedented Risk
SpaceX raised $75 billion, while OpenAI and Anthropic are expected to raise an additional $50 billion combined. This total nearly matches the proceeds from all US VC-backed IPOs over the past decade, achieved by just three companies in a single year.
For context, the record year for VC-backed IPO proceeds was 2021, when 198 companies raised $62.1 billion collectively. These three listings alone could more than double that amount in one cycle.
This concentration of capital signals that when institutional investors focus on three major offerings, demand for other IPOs diminishes. Both underwriting capacity and investor attention are limited. For shareholders in companies outside this group, this directly affects exit timing.
The Liquidity Drought is Real.
The VC market has not seen a typical exit environment since 2021. Fewer companies have gone public in the past four years combined than in 2021 alone. M&A activity remains slow, and value is concentrated in late-stage private companies, often resulting in stagnant capital and LP distributions that lag expectations.
At least 25% of unicorns now have valuations below $1 billion, indicating that headline round prices have diverged from realistic exit values for a significant segment of the market.
For Israeli shareholders, these challenges are intensified. Israel’s ecosystem often sees companies acquired rather than listed, and cross-border exit timelines are highly sensitive to geopolitical conditions. The ongoing regional conflict introduces variables that most IPO models do not accurately account for.
A Rising Tide with Conditions
The optimistic scenario is clear. Successful listings by OpenAI and Anthropic would validate AI at scale, attract more companies to the pipeline, stabilize private market pricing, and unlock LP distributions that have been delayed for years. SpaceX alone, at a $1.75 trillion valuation, delivered over a 10x return for investors from its 2023 round at $137 billion, benefiting nearly 50 participating investors.
The cautionary scenario is less discussed, but equally plausible. Companies that completed IPOs in 2025 generally received limited investor enthusiasm. According to Pitchbook, fourteen of the seventeen unicorns that went public listed below their last private market valuation, and many traded lower after listing. Post-lockup selling pressure from mega IPOs at trillion-dollar valuations introduces volatility risk that could impact the entire pipeline, not just the listing companies.
The WeWork example is instructive, though not a perfect comparison. When WeWork filed its S-1 in 2019 at a $40 billion valuation, the subsequent collapse halted IPO activity across the market for months. While these companies differ significantly from WeWork in business quality, the systemic impact of a poorly received mega listing at a $500 billion to $1.5 trillion valuation would be difficult to predict and manage.
What this Means
For C-suite executives, early investors, and large shareholders, 2026 will require active engagement rather than a passive approach.
Secondary markets have become the most reliable liquidity mechanism for high-value private shareholders. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic have each conducted multiple tender offers at increasing valuations, generating billions in exits for employees and early investors without a public listing. This approach is not limited to trillion-dollar companies.
If IPO conditions become more restrictive due to mega-listing distractions, market volatility, or geopolitical challenges, secondary transactions will become the primary means for capital return. Unlike IPO timing, shareholders can influence the timing of secondary transactions.
Key questions to consider now include: What is the realistic current valuation of your holdings, rather than the last round price? What transfer restrictions apply, and how have they been interpreted in previous transactions? Is there a structured liquidity program in place, or has the company not addressed this issue?
The Outlook
Excluding these mega IPOs, the outlook remains cautious. The 2025 IPO class included 48 offerings, only four more than in 2024 and well below the 20-year average of approximately 70 per year. 2026 faces similar structural challenges, with a limited S-1 pipeline and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.
Whether OpenAI, and Anthropic go public this year or delay until 2027, the key consideration for most shareholders is not the IPO calendar, but whether they have a liquidity strategy that operates independently of it.
The market has the potential to be transformative. Shareholders who succeed will be those who understand their options before opportunities arise, not after.
