Netanyahu’s Likud emerges as Israel’s largest party, but exit polls point to another political deadlock
Netanyahu’s Likud is projected to finish ahead of its rivals, but the initial seat count suggests he may struggle to assemble a 61-seat majority, with the opposition bloc set to win more seats than the current coalition. Arab parties emerge as a surprise of the election, potentially putting Ra’am and its Jewish No. 2 in the spotlight as coalition talks begin.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud emerged as the largest party in Israel’s election, according to television exit polls released after voting ended on Tuesday, but the results offered no clear path for him to form a governing majority, pointing to another period of political uncertainty.
The exit polls projected Likud winning 24-25 seats in the 120-member Knesset, ahead of 22-23 seats for Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar. But neither Netanyahu’s current governing bloc nor the parties seeking to replace him appeared to have a straightforward route to the 61 seats needed to form a government, with the opposition bloc projected to win 53 seats to the current government's 50.
The result would leave Israel facing a familiar question: who can assemble a coalition, rather than simply who won the most votes? The exit polls are preliminary estimates, and the final distribution of seats could change as ballots are counted, particularly if smaller parties finish close to the electoral threshold.
The most unexpected development in the exit polls was the projected strength of the Arab parties, predicted to win a total of around 17 seats, potentially giving them significant influence over the coalition negotiations even if they do not formally belong to either of the two main political blocs.
Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, could attract particular attention, with seven projected seats. The party has a Jewish candidate in the second spot on its list, a feature that could become politically significant if opposition leaders consider seeking its support for a government. Whether Ra’am, or any of the other Arab parties, will be invited to participate in coalition talks remains an open question.
Abbas has previously expressed openness to joining a government led by Netanyahu’s opponents, although some opposition parties have ruled out sitting in a coalition with Ra’am. The party’s projected strength may therefore matter as much for the negotiations it could enable as for the number of seats it wins.
