Anthropic heads into IPO week with strong demand and big questions about its future
The offering is already six times oversubscribed, but investors remain divided over how quickly revenue will grow and whether the company can defend its position as Google and other rivals catch up.
Anthropic is heading into its IPO week with investor demand already outpacing the early stages of SpaceX's public offering roadshow, even as prospective shareholders grapple with questions about the AI company's long-term growth prospects and competitive position.
Institutional-investor interest in Anthropic's initial public offering is running ahead of the early days of SpaceX's roadshow, according to Reuters.
The Anthropic roadshow is scheduled to run through Wednesday, when the AI company is expected to price the $64 billion offering. Anthropic and its investment banks have been meeting prospective investors in New York, Boston and San Francisco to gauge demand.
The IPO attracted orders for approximately twice the number of shares available by the end of Tuesday, the first day of the roadshow. By the end of Thursday, the order book was six times oversubscribed, Reuters said. SpaceX's IPO was twice oversubscribed by the end of its second day of roadshow.
While a single-digit subscription rate would be considered modest for many highly anticipated IPOs, bankers and investors said demand is impressive given the size of Anthropic's offering. They expect the order book to grow substantially as the roadshow progresses, reflecting strong early interest.
The details of the IPO, including demand for shares, could still change, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Anthropic declined to comment.
During the roadshow, investors have been grappling with two fundamental questions as they assess the offering and the company's valuation: whether Anthropic can maintain its lead as competitors such as Google rapidly catch up in developing advanced AI models, and whether its Claude chatbot can extend its advantage beyond coding into the broader market for knowledge workers.
The questions underscore the difficulty of valuing a company whose revenue is growing rapidly but whose long-term competitive position remains uncertain. Investors are trying to determine whether the AI industry will ultimately be dominated by one or two players or support several leading companies, and whether Anthropic can sustain premium pricing if rivals offer comparable models.
Investors are also weighing the limitations of the information Anthropic has provided during its IPO roadshow. One investor who attended a meeting said the company had not provided detailed answers to some of the questions raised. Anthropic declined to comment on the investor's remarks.
While companies are not always able to address every question during roadshows, some investors remain cautious about an offering at a high valuation amid a broader shakeout in the AI sector. The limited disclosure has left some of them seeking greater clarity.
At one of the group meetings, the company also did not provide a conference call through which institutional investors could dial in and ask questions, according to an investor who attended. That was a departure from standard roadshow practice. Representatives from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley largely read prepared remarks rather than soliciting questions at the meeting, the investor said.
Morgan Stanley declined to comment. Goldman Sachs did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Investors are arriving at widely different estimates of how quickly Anthropic's revenue will grow, creating a broad range of potential valuation outcomes.
A key figure underpinning valuation models is Anthropic's projected 2028 revenue, which banks estimate at approximately $270 billion to $280 billion. Those projections are used to calculate enterprise-value-to-revenue multiples and derive valuation estimates. For a high-growth company such as Anthropic, investors typically place significant weight on future revenue when assessing its value.
Some sell-side projections put Anthropic's revenue at approximately $52 billion to $53 billion in 2026, rising to $135 billion to $137 billion in 2027, one of the people said.
Certain buy-side projections are 10% to 15% higher for both 2026 and 2027, according to an investor who has placed an order in the IPO.
Buy-side forecasts nevertheless vary significantly. One investor who conducted due diligence on the offering but decided not to participate has a more conservative outlook, with a 2028 revenue estimate approximately 30% below the sell-side projection.
Differences between sell-side and buy-side forecasts are common. Sell-side analysts' estimates tend to track a company's own projections more closely, while investors may adopt more optimistic or conservative assumptions about future growth. Companies, in turn, have an incentive to set conservative targets ahead of an IPO, leaving room to exceed expectations and raise forecasts after listing.
The comparable companies used in valuation models also reflect the difficulty of finding direct peers for Anthropic. SpaceX and cybersecurity company CrowdStrike are among the names being used as benchmarks.
The focus on Anthropic's projected 2028 revenue contrasts with SpaceX, whose valuation case relied on projected 2029 revenue that some investors considered particularly aggressive. Anthropic's valuation debate, by comparison, is anchored in a forecast for a year closer to its expected public listing.
