Opinion
The IPO window isn't open. Here's what that means for your shares
While the market is focused on potential mega-IPOs, Chaim Schiff, CEO of The Elephant Secondary Group, explains why this does not necessarily translate into broader liquidity for startup employees
Everyone is talking about the big IPOs. SpaceX. OpenAI. Anthropic. If any of them go public in 2026, they would likely be the three largest VC-backed IPOs ever recorded, potentially generating more value than all VC-backed IPOs combined since 2000.
That sounds like great news. And for the venture market broadly, it might be. But for startup employees holding unvested or vested shares at companies other than SpaceX or OpenAI? The picture is more complicated.
Here's what the IPO conversation gets wrong.
The "rising tide" assumption is not guaranteed
The logic goes: mega IPOs list, markets respond well, the window opens, and everyone else follows. Maybe. But 2026 was expected to be a continuation of the IPO rebound that started in 2025, and so far, only a few companies are in the registration process with no major listings completed in the first months of the year.
Even in 2025, when unicorn IPO activity picked up, 17 unicorns went public, with 14 pricing below their last private market valuation, and many traded lower after listing, according to Pitchbook. An open window does not mean a welcoming one.
And here is the structural problem: SpaceX is reported to be targeting between $50 billion and $75 billion in its offering, with OpenAI and Anthropic potentially raising another $50 billion combined. That total is roughly equivalent to everything raised by US VC-backed IPOs over the past decade. When a handful of companies absorb that much investor capital, there is less appetite left for everyone else.
Your company's IPO is probably further away than you think
This is not pessimism. It is the data.
The US VC market has been in an extended liquidity drought, with fewer companies going public in the past four years combined than went public in 2021 alone. M&A activity has been slow, and value has been accumulating in late-stage private companies - often sitting stagnant, with promised LP returns not yet delivered.
At least 25% of unicorns now have valuations below $1 billion, meaning the $1B+ headline your company hit years ago may not reflect where the market would price it today.
For Israeli startup employees specifically, this matters. Israel's tech ecosystem produces world-class companies, but the path from founding to public listing has lengthened significantly. If you joined a startup five, six, or seven years ago expecting a 2023 or 2024 exit, that timeline has already shifted at least once. Possibly twice.
What most employees don't know: You don't have to wait
Secondary markets exist for this moment: before an IPO or acquisition, when the company is healthy, growing, and private, and you need liquidity now.
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic have conducted multiple tender offers, generating billions in liquidity for employees and early investors. Each secondary transaction closed at a higher valuation than the last. These are not distress sales but structured, intentional liquidity events for people who have waited long enough.
Most startup employees assume secondary transactions are only for insiders at elite companies. That is not accurate. The secondary market for private shares has matured, and individual shareholders at growth-stage companies, including many in Israel, have real options.
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The questions worth asking right now
Do you know the current estimated value of your shares? Not the valuation announced three years ago, but the realistic, mark-to-market number.
Do you know if your company has restrictions on secondary transactions, affecting your ability to sell? Most do, and most employees are not aware of it. This restriction determines how, when, and to whom you can sell your shares - and understanding it is the first practical step before exploring any transaction.
The next step is talking to someone whose job is to help you, not the company. That means an independent advisor with experience in private share transactions, before checking with the company's legal team.
The IPO may come. Or it may not. Either way, you have options.
Whether the major IPOs happen in 2026 or later, the coming years could transform venture market returns. Investors, founders, and employees may see significant windfalls from these listings. But "could be" and "when" are very different.
The secondary market exists so you do not have to choose between waiting indefinitely and walking away from your equity. You can get informed, understand your shares' worth, and decide on your timeline, not the market's.
That is what liquidity before an IPO actually looks like.
Chaim Schiff is the CEO of The Elephant Secondary Group.
