Will antitrust regulators kill Google’s $32B Wiz deal?
The U.S. Justice Department is scrutinizing the acquisition, but that doesn’t mean it won’t go through.
The news that the U.S. Department of Justice has opened an antitrust review into Google’s proposed $32 billion acquisition of Israeli cybersecurity company Wiz may appear ominous at first glance. But in context, the move is neither surprising nor necessarily fatal to the deal.
In fact, regulatory scrutiny was all but inevitable from the moment the acquisition was announced. A transaction of this scale - Alphabet’s largest ever, in one of the most strategically sensitive sectors of the digital economy - was always going to draw attention from antitrust enforcers.
The question now is not whether there will be scrutiny, but how far it goes, and whether it will ultimately derail the deal.
The DOJ’s decision to review the acquisition aligns with standard practice for transactions involving dominant tech platforms, especially those seeking to expand their reach in emerging infrastructure markets like cloud security. Google Cloud is already in a high-stakes race with Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services. Acquiring Wiz, arguably the most successful cloud-native cybersecurity startup of the past five years, would meaningfully strengthen Google’s hand in a space that is increasingly vital to enterprise customers.
But it’s also worth noting that scrutiny is not synonymous with opposition. Regulators reviewing a deal doesn’t mean they will block it, nor does it mean they believe there is a clear antitrust violation. Many complex deals pass after protracted reviews, sometimes with conditions.
Indeed, both Google and Wiz appear to have anticipated this scenario. Reports indicate the deal was accelerated after the return of Donald Trump to the White House, amid expectations of a more industry-friendly approach to antitrust enforcement. The appointments of Andrew Ferguson and Gail Slater, two figures known for their more conservative views on competition policy, to lead the FTC and DOJ antitrust division respectively, likely reinforced the belief that the political climate would favor deal approval.
The structure and sector focus of the deal may also work in the companies’ favor. Wiz, while high-profile, is not an incumbent. It is a fast-growing challenger with strong technology but no monopoly position in any market. Google is not yet dominant in cloud cybersecurity, and acquiring Wiz is widely viewed as a way to close the gap with Microsoft and Amazon rather than to solidify an already unassailable position.
Moreover, there’s no indication that Wiz’s customers would lose options post-acquisition, or that the deal would force consolidation in a way that harms enterprise buyers. If anything, the merger could intensify competition by making Google a more serious rival to Microsoft Defender and AWS’s growing security offerings.
That makes the deal materially different from others that have collapsed under antitrust pressure, such as Adobe’s failed attempt to buy Figma. In that case, regulators saw a clear threat to product and pricing competition. With Wiz, the case for harm is less clear-cut.
None of this guarantees a smooth path. Google is already embroiled in multiple lawsuits related to its core advertising and search businesses. The DOJ’s recent success in convincing a federal judge that Google “willfully acquired and maintained monopoly power” in parts of the ad-tech stack could encourage regulators to lean harder on other deals.
There’s also the optics: a $32 billion acquisition by one of the world’s largest companies, just months after a pro-corporate administration returns to power, may provoke political pushback, especially if Democratic lawmakers or European regulators choose to elevate concerns.
That’s why the unusually large breakup fee, a reported $3.2 billion, matters. It reflects both Google’s conviction that the deal is worth the risk, and Wiz’s recognition that approval is not guaranteed. For Wiz, the fee offers protection; for Google, it’s a calculated gamble.
For now, the deal remains on track, with closing expected no earlier than 2026. The DOJ review could lead to conditions or divestitures, but absent new information or political pressure, a full block seems unlikely, especially given the lack of overlap between the two companies’ existing business lines.
Still, in today’s regulatory climate, even well-structured deals with sound industrial logic are subject to prolonged and unpredictable reviews. That doesn’t mean the Google–Wiz deal is in danger. It just means that the final chapter is far from written.
