The $200 million question surrounding Deni Avdija
At 25, the Israeli star is delivering elite production on what analysts call one of the league’s most underpriced contracts.
On his 25th birthday, Deni Avdija showed the world just how much he has become one of the biggest basketball stars in the game. After two games in which he scored more than 30 points, he reached a significant milestone in his career: Avdija was named the NBA’s Western Conference Player of the Week. And if that wasn’t enough, LeBron James also showered him with praise, saying: “He is a quality player, he’s having a breakout year.”
This display by Avdija has already begun to feel routine this season, and soon people in Israel may grow indifferent to it. Because that’s how we are: we get used to miracles if they happen twice a week, just as we’ve grown accustomed to Israeli high-tech companies being acquired for billions without pausing to grasp the magnitude of those events. But an analysis of Avdija’s 2026 season requires looking at the board not only through the hoop, but also through the profit-and-loss statement. Avdija is currently the most profitable “startup” to come out of Israel, and he is doing so under a contract that feels like a steal by NBA economic standards.
On Wednesday, Avdija set a season-high with 41 points, finishing just two shy of his career record. He led Portland to a dramatic 103-102 victory over title contender Houston, sealing a game that swung wildly in the closing moments.
$55 million over four years. That is the number that defines the beginning of Avdija’s financial rise, and at the same time, one of the biggest anomalies in the league. The contract Avdija signed with the Washington Wizards in October 2023 was born in an atmosphere of uncertainty. At the time, Avdija was not fully established, playing for a franchise struggling to define its professional identity. From a risk-management perspective, he chose one bird in the hand over ten in the bush.
Today, with his stock at its peak, that contract looks like a pre-Seed deal signed just before an IPO at a monstrous valuation. Respected commentator Zach Lowe, who analyzed Avdija’s situation, put it plainly: “Avdija has one of the best value contracts in the league. It’s an absolute steal in the current salary-cap environment.” Lowe emphasized that in the modern NBA, finding a true two-way player, elite on both offense and defense, at such a price can change the trajectory of an entire franchise.
$14.3 million is all Portland is paying this season for the services of its on-court leader. But the truly remarkable figure is hidden in the contract’s declining structure. While most NBA deals escalate annually with the salary cap, Avdija’s salary is shrinking: $13.1 million next season, and just $11.8 million in the final year (2027/28).
This is not just a bargain, it’s an outlier. Portland is paying a player currently worth an estimated $30-35 million per season less than one-third of his market value. In a market where players like OG Anunoby command $40 million per year, Bill Simmons of the popular Bill Simmons Podcast called Avdija one of the league’s biggest economic anomalies of 2026.
1-3 is Avdija’s realistic range in the race for the 2025-26 Most Improved Player award. While he is among the leading candidates, the competition is fierce, with Atlanta’s Jalen Johnson among those posting dramatic leaps. The NBA loves breakout narratives, and Avdija’s is among the strongest.
Eleven assists against San Antonio, in a game that marked his third triple-double of the season, are evidence of his evolution into a point forward amid Portland’s professional reset. The season began with upheaval following the departure of coach Chauncey Billups, and the arrival of Tiago Splitter. The Brazilian coach built the system around Avdija, but stresses that his value transcends statistics.
In a recent interview, Splitter highlighted Avdija’s leadership: “What Deni brings to the locker room is rare for a player his age. He’s become our vocal leader in a time of uncertainty. His leadership isn’t just talk, it’s work ethic. He’s the hardest worker in practice. He’s the glue that holds us together when games get tight.” These words explain why Avdija is not just a professional asset, but a cultural pillar of Portland’s rebuild.
$200 million is a realistic target for Avdija’s next contract. Many people feel underpaid relative to their value. For Avdija, that gap is extreme. Portland cannot renegotiate his deal under the current CBA, allowing the team to benefit from a historic arbitrage opportunity.
As ESPN’s Bobby Marks explained in December 2025: “Deni Avdija is the perfect example of why teams push for early extensions. Based on projected 2028 cap growth, a player with his productivity and versatility would qualify for a five-year deal north of $200 million. He’s not just a bargain, he’s a strategic financial weapon.”
Perfect position
When free agency arrives in the summer of 2028, Avdija will be among the most coveted players on the market. With the salary cap expected to surge due to new media-rights agreements, a max contract for a player of his caliber would easily exceed $200 million.
$76 billion. That’s the reported value of the NBA’s new broadcast deals, and the engine behind Avdija’s future payday. Because the cap is tied directly to league revenue, this influx changes everything. Avdija’s timing could not be better.
“Deni Avdija is a big-money player,” Stephen A. Smith said on First Take. “He’s going to get paid, a lot, when this contract ends.” Smith described Avdija as emblematic of the NBA’s new era: an international star without physical limitations.
He turned 25 on January 3, the classic NBA inflection point, where physical prime meets accumulated experience. Avdija doesn’t just play the game anymore; he runs it. The challenge for fans is not to take it for granted. His rise proves that disciplined career management, even after a slow start, can lead to the greatest “exit” in Israeli sports.
“At 25, Deni has hit the sweet spot,” Splitter said. “He has the body of a veteran and the hunger of a rookie. He understands the ‘why’ behind every move.”
Only about 5% of NBA players can consistently post 30-10-5 lines. Avdija joined that club this season. His ability to influence every phase of the game makes his contract the league’s greatest punchline. As Lowe put it: “He’s the most underrated and underpaid player in basketball. It’s a statistical and financial unicorn.”
Under the new CBA, the salary cap can rise no more than 10% annually, meaning that by 2028, it will be nearly 50% higher than when Avdija signed his deal. His declining salary gives Portland rare flexibility under the Second Apron rules.
The final stamp
Roughly $15 million separates Avdija’s salary from his true market value based on PER and EPM. In accounting terms, Portland is carrying hidden equity, star production priced like a rotation piece.
2026 may be the year the market fully corrects with All-Star recognition. Draymond Green put it bluntly: “You can’t ignore him anymore. He’s an All-Star. Portland stole him.”
