VC Survey 2026
“Durable growth will be proven by how healthy cohorts behave”
DTCP Growth managing director Dean Shahar joins CTech as part of the VC Survey 2026: The Next Leap, to discuss what he views as the definitive valuation metric, the state of sovereignty in Startup Nation, and why resilience tech is a promising contrarian opportunity.
“I don’t think most startups think in terms of sovereignty, and they probably shouldn’t. What has clearly changed is the focus on resiliency,” says Dean Shahar, managing director of DTCP Growth. “The goal isn’t to avoid global platforms, but to architect businesses and systems that remain reliable no matter what.”
Following the turbulence of recent years and the stabilization of 2025, the Israeli tech ecosystem is entering a new era: The Next Leap. Shahar joined CTech to share insights for its VC Survey 2026, which invites prominent investors to discuss the topics, trends, and “leaps” expected in the year ahead.
In 2026, Shahar expects premium valuations to be driven by cohort health analysis. “Durable growth will be proven by how healthy cohorts behave six, twelve, and eighteen months after initial deployment,” Shahar says. As for how the bearing of the AI revolution on headcount growth as a success metric, he adds: “AI doesn’t eliminate the need for people, but it does raise the bar for when and where additional hiring is truly justified.”
Further, resilience technology, according to Shahar, is a meaningful contrarian opportunity that is emerging. Given the focus on topics like sovereignty, defense, and national infrastructure, he believes: “technologies that help organizations and critical systems remain operational under stress, cyber, physical, or geopolitical, are still underestimated in both urgency and scope.”
You can read the entire interview below:
Fund ID
Name of Fund: DTCP Growth
Total Assets Under Management (AUM): $3 billion
Partners / Managers: Vicente Vento (founder and CEO), Thomas Preuß (managing partner), Lance Matthews (partner), Michael Rager (partner), Jack Young (managing partner, continuation), Dean Shahar (managing director)
Notable Portfolio Companies (Active): Groq, Quantum Systems, Cohere, Axonius, AppsFlyer, Zenity, OX Security, Anecdotes
Notable Exits: Cognigy (Acquired by Nice), Leanix (acquired by SAP), Auth0 (acquired by Okta), Guardicore (acquired by Akamai), Epsagon (acquired by Cisco), Dynamic Yield (acquired by McDonald’s)
The Valuation Leap: Moving past the market correction, what is the single most critical metric (e.g. EBITDA, NRR) that will drive premium valuations in 2026?
Rather than a single standalone metric, I think premium valuations will increasingly be driven by cohort health analysis. Many AI-native companies today have large numbers of early users or “testers,” but the real valuation gap will emerge when investors can clearly see consistent cohorts that adopt, stick, and expand over time. Net Dollar Retention still matters, but only when it reflects genuine, repeatable usage patterns and expanding value per customer, not experimentation. Durable growth will be proven by how healthy cohorts behave six, twelve, and eighteen months after initial deployment.
The Agentic Leap: As we transition from 'Copilots' to autonomous 'Agents,' which specific vertical will be the first to fully trust AI with independent decision-making?
Customer support slash customer-facing solutions are likely to be one of the first verticals to adopt agentic AI at scale, but in a pragmatic way. Most people dislike chatbots precisely because they remove control and accountability. The opportunity is not full autonomy overnight, but AI-driven workflows that resolve the majority of routine issues, with clear escalation paths when needed. This approach builds trust, improves customer experience, and allows organizations to deploy AI broadly without taking unnecessary risk of losing customers or leads.
The Sovereign Leap: Have the geopolitical lessons of recent years pushed Israeli startups to build independent, 'sovereign' tech stacks to reduce reliance on global platforms?
I don’t think most startups think in terms of sovereignty, and they probably shouldn’t. What has clearly changed is the focus on resiliency. Founders are more deliberate about ensuring they can deliver consistently under different conditions, whether that’s cloud concentration risk, regulatory changes, or geopolitical uncertainty. The goal isn’t to avoid global platforms, but to architect businesses and systems that remain reliable no matter what.
The Efficiency Leap: In the era of AI-driven hyper-productivity, is the traditional correlation between 'Headcount Growth' and 'Company Success' permanently broken?
Not permanently, but it should be questioned more often. Headcount still matters as companies scale, but the discipline has shifted. Every couple of quarters, leadership teams should pause and ask what can be done better with existing resources, both in how current teams operate and in how future growth is planned. AI doesn’t eliminate the need for people, but it does raise the bar for when and where additional hiring is truly justified.
The Contrarian Leap: What is one sector or trend currently ignored by the herd that you believe represents the most undervalued opportunity for the coming year?
Resilience technology. While topics like sovereignty, defense, and national infrastructure are widely discussed in the media, they remain under-allocated from an investment standpoint, particularly outside of traditional defense-focused funds. Technologies that help organizations and critical systems remain operational under stress, cyber, physical, or geopolitical, are still underestimated in both urgency and scope, creating a meaningful contrarian opportunity.
Finally, what are 2-3 startups that, in your opinion, are likely to make a leap forward in 2026?
From DTCP Growth’s portfolio:
1. Zenity – As enterprises move from experimentation to production with AI, governance, security, and control become non-negotiable. Zenity is well positioned as a trust and security layer for AI adoption, particularly in environments where agentic workflows are being deployed at scale.
2. OX Security – As AI accelerates code generation, the challenge for AppSec teams shifts from volume to prioritization. OX’s focus on identifying what actually matters, and with security by design (VibeSec for VibeCoding), aligns well with how modern security teams are evolving.
3. Anecdotes – Anecdotes is extending GRC into the agentic era by deploying enterprise-grade AI agents that continuously evaluate policies, controls, and risk signals against live operational data. This is enabled by a purpose-built GRC data layer that connects evidence, controls, and policies, allowing GRC managers to have an "army of GRC players (agents)".
