“I knew I had reported accurately and would not change it”: Israeli reporter targeted by threats over $23M Polymarket bet on Iran strike
Journalist Emanuel Fabian says he resisted mounting pressure, including bribes and threats, from Polymarket users trying to influence the outcome of a multimillion-dollar bet tied to an Iran strike.
The gambling platform Polymarket has blocked the accounts of users who threatened the life of an Israeli journalist in an attempt to force a news report to be changed. “We will pass their info to the relevant authorities,” a message on Polymarket’s X account (formerly Twitter) stated.
Last Tuesday, March 10, Emanuel Fabian, a military correspondent for the Time of Israel, reported on a missile landing in an open area near Beit Shemesh, which caused a powerful explosion but no casualties. Later that day, Fabian received an email from someone identifying as “Aviv,” claiming that the Beit Shemesh municipality and MDA had informed him the incident was merely an interception fragment. “I’d appreciate it if you could update your article, as in its current form it does not reflect reality. Alternatively, if you have information that it was indeed a full missile that was not intercepted, I would be glad to be corrected,” the email read. Fabian, citing information from the IDF and photographic documentation, maintained that it was indeed a missile strike, not an interception fragment.
This was only the beginning of a series of threats, bribe offers, and harassment. The following day, Fabian received two calls from someone identifying as “Daniel,” who insisted that he change the article because it would be very helpful. The calls continued on Thursday. Simultaneously, Fabian received anonymous messages via email, Discord, and X, as well as inquiries forwarded by a colleague at another media outlet who was offered a share of the profits from a Polymarket bet if Fabian altered the report.
Earlier this week, the pressure escalated into explicit threats. “You have exactly half an hour to correct your attempt at influence,” wrote a sender identifying as “Haim” on WhatsApp on the night of March 14-15. “If you do not correct this by 01:00 Israel time today, March 15, you are bringing upon yourself damage you have never imagined you would suffer.” The message included a bribe offer, suggesting Fabian could end it with “money in your pocket.” In subsequent hours, additional threatening messages arrived. Fabian later received a call from a “lawyer” named “Vered,” allegedly representing U.S. authorities investigating manipulation of a Polymarket bet.
Fabian contacted the police and submitted testimony and evidence. By Monday, after Fabian reported on the situation publicly, the threats stopped. “The threats stopped because I published the article and because the police acted on the matter. They know who sent the threats,” Fabian told Calcalist.
Fabian emphasized that he never considered changing the article. “Even before the threats, I thought, ‘What does it matter? It’s a minor detail.’ But I realized it would be unethical to alter a truthful report. When the threats escalated, I knew I had reported accurately and would not change it,” he said. He also warned that other journalists might not respond the same way. “I may be the first to go public. Others may have changed articles, or even acted on inside information to profit from bets. It’s a very reasonable possibility.”
Polymarket reacted strongly, stating on X: “Polymarket condemns the harassment & threats directed at Emanuel Fabian — or anyone else for that matter. This behavior violates our Terms of Service & has no place on our platform. We've banned the accounts for all involved & will pass their info to the relevant authorities.”
This incident highlights a broader concern regarding prediction markets. Polymarket allows users to place binary bets on events, including sports, awards, and geopolitical developments.
Before the incident, one of the site’s most popular bets involved whether Iran would strike Israel on March 10. Bets on this event totaled $23.1 million. Rules specify that a missile strike is only counted as “yes” if official or media consensus confirms the event, meaning journalists like Fabian indirectly determine the outcome. This created an incentive for bettors to pressure journalists to skew reporting to ensure a desired result.
Similar cases have arisen with Polymarket competitors, such as Kalshi. In February, a civilian and a reservist were charged with security offenses for using classified military information to place bets. Following Iran’s missile attack, several new accounts reportedly profited over $1 million by correctly betting on the timing of US-Israeli operations.
Fabian’s case illustrates the ethical dilemmas posed by financial incentives in prediction markets. While platforms claim to reflect informed opinions, users may attempt to distort reporting for profit, creating risks for journalists and public trust. As these sites grow and handle larger sums of money, incidents like this are likely to increase.
