Crude but effective: Iran’s cluster missiles test Israel’s defenses
Security officials say weapons are unsophisticated, but their wide dispersal complicates interception.
To the extent that the cluster warheads launched by Iran at Israel generate panic, security officials describe them as relatively primitive, inexpensive, and largely unsophisticated weapons, not ones that justify the development of a dedicated technological response.
It is important to distinguish between cluster and MIRV (Multiple Independently targetable Reentry Vehicle) warheads, terms that are often confused in public discourse. A MIRV warhead - which, according to security sources, is not known to be in Iran’s possession - contains several medium or large warheads that separate from the missile while still outside the atmosphere. Each then becomes an independent unit that can maneuver toward a different target.
According to security sources, such capabilities are typically limited to major military powers and are not believed to be part of Iran’s arsenal in the form of true split warheads.
Instead, the munitions carried on Iranian ballistic missiles are smaller and replace heavier payloads that can weigh between 400 kg and one ton. These cluster payloads carry dozens of small explosive submunitions weighing between 2.5 kg and 5 kg.
If the missile is not intercepted at high altitude, typically by systems such as Arrow 3 missile defense system developed by Israel Aerospace Industries, it can open at an altitude of roughly 8 kilometers and disperse its contents over an area with a radius of up to 10 kilometers. This creates multiple potential impact zones, sometimes across several communities within that radius.
Depending on the configuration, a cluster missile may carry between 25 and 30 smaller submunitions, or 10 to 15 heavier ones.
These munitions are not guided once released and are considered statistical weapons, meaning their impact points are largely random. Security officials compare their effect to that of Grad rockets previously fired by Hamas from Gaza. While their destructive power is relatively limited, direct exposure can still result in serious injury or death.
Israel’s air defense systems are designed to intercept such threats at long range and high altitude, ideally outside the atmosphere, to prevent the dispersal stage altogether. However, even when interceptions occur, not all submunitions are necessarily destroyed.
Pini Yungman, President of TSG Group, told Calcalist that remnants of intercepted missiles can continue descending due to momentum and gravity, spreading over wide areas, similar to debris from interceptor systems themselves.
“There is nothing new or particularly advanced about this weapon,” a Western missile expert said. “We have known about it for many years, even before Iran began using it operationally.” The expert added that “a concrete ceiling, or preferably two, can provide effective protection.”
One of the central challenges, however, is uncertainty. While a missile is in flight, it is impossible to determine whether it carries cluster munitions or a much heavier warhead. As a result, the Home Front Command maintains broad guidance: civilians should seek shelter whenever sirens sound.
These types of weapons often trigger alarms across wide geographic areas. According to Yungman, TSG systems are used to provide early warnings, and improvements are underway to make alerts more precise and personalized.
“Long warning times of 10 to 12 minutes can be critical, especially for those without immediate access to fortified shelters,” he said. “Even a 20% reduction in unnecessary alerts would be significant, given the scale of disruption to millions of civilians.”
Since the latest round of fighting with Iran began roughly two and a half weeks ago, the IDF has not disclosed the total number of ballistic missile launches or interception rates, citing operational security considerations. This marks a departure from previous conflicts, including last June, when Iran launched approximately 550 missiles at Israel, with about 85% intercepted.
The same ambiguity applies to attacks from Lebanon, including rockets and drones targeting northern communities.
Meanwhile, attention is turning to future defense technologies. The Israeli public is awaiting the operational deployment of a high-powered laser interception system known as Iron Beam developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems. The system is intended to intercept aerial threats rapidly and at significantly lower cost.
Although Rafael began delivering the system to the IDF more than three months ago, defense officials say it is still undergoing integration and is not yet operational.
