Israel’s weapons remain in demand, but politics may decide who buys them
Foreign militaries continue to show interest in Israeli defense systems, yet political leaders must weigh procurement decisions against public opposition to Israel. Long-term contracts and local manufacturing partnerships could help sustain cooperation, but their future is less certain as governments change.
The election results in Israel could affect a series of major arms deals that Israeli defense companies have been advancing with foreign governments in recent months. According to a senior defense official, some of the deals are “awaiting public legitimacy before they can move forward toward the signing of contracts. All eyes are on us, and everyone wants to know where we are headed.”
This comes amid growing international criticism of Israel, fueled by the prolonged war in Gaza and settler violence against Palestinians in the occupied territories, which is taking place while government officials, the military and police effectively turn a blind eye. The criticism exposes Israel to the risk of severe sanctions, including trade restrictions, arms embargoes and expanded curbs on exports of the components and raw materials used to manufacture weapons.
Although defense ministries and militaries around the world hold Israeli weaponry in high regard, political leaders’ willingness to pursue such acquisitions is often shaped by public opinion at home.
“We are in constant dialogue with leaders and military commanders who are clearly very keen on our systems; however, they must also be mindful of public opinion, which is difficult to sway when the prevailing sentiment toward Israel is negative. While some nations engage in covert deals with us, in other countries, decisions regarding significant, large-scale agreements will likely be deferred until the situation in Israel becomes clearer,” a senior defense official told Calcalist.
In 2025, Israel’s defense exports reached a record $19.2 billion. Despite that performance, the Ministry of Defense believes Israeli companies have yet to realize their full potential in international markets. The ministry aims to sustain export growth by expanding government-to-government (G2G) agreements, which can be concluded relatively quickly and help bypass bureaucratic hurdles.
One such agreement was signed two days ago between Israel’s Ministry of Defense and Cyprus’s Ministry of Defence. Under the deal, Israel Shipyards will supply a patrol vessel to the Cypriot Navy equipped with systems developed by Rafael. As Calcalist reported last week, the deal is valued at approximately $150 million and is intended to strengthen security and diplomatic ties between the two countries.
But Israel’s election results are not the only political factor that could affect other countries’ willingness to pursue arms deals with it. Earlier this week, the “Students’ List” in Serbia defeated Aleksandar Vučić, the populist right-wing leader who had governed the country for the previous 12 years. During his tenure, ties between Serbia and Israel deepened, benefiting Israeli defense companies, particularly Elbit Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI).
Vučić’s defeat has raised questions about the future of Serbia’s close security ties with Israel. Just weeks before his electoral loss, Vučić inaugurated a new drone manufacturing plant near Belgrade. Established through an industrial partnership between Elbit Systems and Serbian company Yugoimport, the facility is expected to employ about 100 workers.
While many countries turned away from Israel during the war in Gaza, restricting or halting shipments of weapons and the raw materials needed to produce them, Serbia supplied Israel with various types of munitions required by the military, including 155mm artillery shells.
Israel’s defense establishment is monitoring political developments in Serbia partly because of uncertainty over the country’s future policy on arms exports to conflict zones. It is also unclear whether the new leadership will maintain the previous administration’s approach and continue to deepen ties with Israeli defense companies.
One major agreement is at stake. Signed in the summer of 2025 and valued at approximately $1.65 billion, the deal calls for Elbit Systems to supply the Serbian military with advanced unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), artillery systems, precision-guided munitions, drones and other equipment.
The agreement followed another deal signed in late 2024, under which Serbia’s Ministry of Defense ordered long-range rockets and Hermes 900 UAVs from Elbit in a transaction worth $335 million.
The election results in Brazil could also pose challenges for Israeli defense companies. Executives who had hoped for a political shift and a victory by Flávio Bolsonaro were likely disappointed by the second-round victory of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has taken a critical stance toward Israel, particularly since the war in Gaza.
Nevertheless, Israeli defense companies continue to pursue arms deals and partnerships with local firms in Brazil despite Lula’s opposition to Israel. These include the supply of Elbit’s Hermes 900 UAVs to the Brazilian Air Force. About two years ago, Rafael supplied the Brazilian Army with Spike anti-tank missiles ordered in 2021.
Another potential agreement would see Elbit supply the Brazilian Army with dozens of ATMOS self-propelled howitzers in a deal valued at approximately $210 million. A signing ceremony for an order covering the first two units, scheduled for today, was canceled. Brazilian media reported that no new date had been set.
Security sources say the long timelines involved in military procurement, combined with deepening partnerships between Israeli defense companies and local manufacturers producing equipment using transferred know-how, can make it difficult for political leaders to translate public criticism of Israel into concrete restrictions. Such industrial ties may endure even under governments that take a hostile stance toward Israel.
