The AI coding apocalypse isn't happening, at least not for experienced engineers
SignalFire's data suggests software engineers remain among the safest workers in tech, while junior talent is paying the price.
Contrary to popular belief, software engineering jobs appear to be among the most resilient to the AI revolution and have been the least affected by the integration of AI tools across tech companies, according to a report published this week by venture capital firm SignalFire.
In recent months, however, tech companies have carried out several significant rounds of layoffs as they adapt to the AI era. Meta cut 8,000 jobs (10% of its workforce) as part of a restructuring effort tied to its massive investments in AI infrastructure. Oracle has eliminated approximately 21,000 jobs over the past year following what it described as the "deployment of AI technologies." Israeli company Fiverr has reduced its workforce by about 30% (250 employees) as part of its transition to an "AI-first" operating model.
Coding and software engineering jobs are widely perceived to be among the biggest victims of these layoffs, an idea often described as the "AI coding apocalypse", because of the increasingly sophisticated coding capabilities of AI models such as Anthropic's Claude. However, SignalFire's report argues that the reality is far more nuanced.
The report is based on data collected through SignalFire's AI platform, which tracks the employment status of more than 650 million people across more than 80 million organizations on LinkedIn. For the analysis, the firm focused on 12 major technology companies, including Google, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, Uber, and Tesla, as well as leading AI companies and research labs such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google's DeepMind, in addition to early-stage startups. The analysis examined hiring activity and job transitions based on LinkedIn profile updates, rather than layoffs or retirements, since employees typically do not update those events on their profiles in real time.
According to the report, hiring across the 12 largest technology companies in 2025 was 25% lower than in 2019. However, software engineers accounted for 55% of all new hires at those companies, compared with 46% in 2019. In other words, while the overall hiring pie has shrunk, software engineers now make up a significantly larger share of new recruits. Early-stage startups also hired 7% more software engineers than they did in 2019.
The picture changes dramatically, however, for entry-level workers. According to the report, hiring for junior software engineering positions has fallen by 65% at large technology companies and by 76% at startups compared with 2019.
