Polymarket, power, and the price of prediction
How prediction markets could reshape politics, journalism, and trust.
In early January, the Dow Jones division of News Corp, the world’s leading publisher of business and financial media, announced an unusual collaboration. Polymarket, a website that allows users to bet on the outcomes of global current events, will provide Dow Jones publications, including The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and MarketWatch, with real-time forecasts reflecting expected trends in financial, political, and cultural arenas.
“It’s a rapidly evolving source of real-time insights into collective beliefs about future events,” Dow Jones explained. In other words, what Polymarket’s user base thinks about the future has itself become a source of news.
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Arrest of Nicolas Maduro (left), sign against Trump in Greenland
(Jonathan Nackstrand / AFP from ABC Network)
Dow Jones is not alone. At the most recent Golden Globe Awards, betting odds from Polymarket were integrated throughout the broadcast. CNN signed a partnership agreement with Polymarket competitor Kalshi and incorporated betting odds into its coverage as if they were relevant factual indicators. Many news sites now routinely report on what Polymarket users are betting on, for example, whether Donald Trump will sign a deal on Greenland this year (a 71% chance), or whether the U.S. government will enter another shutdown by the end of the month (73%).
The media’s interest in Polymarket is not entirely unfounded. Since its launch six years ago, users have correctly anticipated several major global events, even when commentators, experts, and statistical models pointed in other directions. The most notable example came during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when Polymarket odds consistently favored a Donald Trump victory even as polls predicted a Kamala Harris win or a razor-thin race.
In Israel, the platform has gained wider exposure in recent days following a report by the Kan Broadcasting Corporation about an anonymous bettor who accurately predicted the timing of Israel’s attack on Iran last June, earning roughly $100,000 in profits. The concern is that the bettor may have been a security establishment insider who exploited highly classified information. The same user later placed large bets on additional Israeli strikes on Iran, one by January 31 and another by March 31, raising fears of renewed escalation.
Polymarket was founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, a 27-year-old New York–based crypto entrepreneur who amassed his initial capital through early investments tied to Ethereum.
Polymarket operates as a hybrid of a stock exchange and a crypto platform. The company creates markets on a wide range of topics, based on internal analysis, user suggestions, and current events. Each market is binary, a simple yes-or-no outcome. Examples include whether Italy will join the Peace Council by March 31 (currently 62% no), whether One Battle After Another will win the Oscar for Best Picture (70% yes), or which team will win a particular sporting event.
Users can buy “yes” or “no” shares, with prices reflecting the implied probability of each outcome. A “yes” share priced at 70 cents implies a 70% chance of occurring, while the corresponding “no” share trades at 30 cents. When the event concludes, correct shares are redeemed at $1, while incorrect ones are worth nothing. In this case, if One Battle After Another wins the Oscar, a user who bought “yes” shares at 70 cents earns 30 cents per share.
Prices are not fixed. As demand shifts, prices rise and fall accordingly, much like traditional equities. If many users bet on a “yes” outcome, its price increases, reducing potential profit and making the “no” side cheaper, and potentially more attractive to contrarian or high-risk bettors. The combined value of a “yes” and “no” share always equals one dollar.
The market becomes more complex once trading enters the picture. Users do not need to hold shares until an event concludes. A bettor who bought a “yes” share at 60 cents can sell it later at the prevailing market price, say, 70 cents, locking in an immediate profit. Highly confident traders, or those with privileged information, can attempt to dominate a market by aggressively bidding up one side.
The result is a constantly shifting market that aggregates analysis, data, intuition, speculation, and sometimes insider knowledge, producing a probabilistic signal that many find compelling, even if its accuracy is not scientifically guaranteed.
Polymarket’s crypto roots are reflected in its risk-management mechanics. When matching trades are unavailable, the platform effectively creates new “yes” and “no” shares, collecting funds from both sides and backing them with USDC, a dollar-pegged stablecoin, held in a public blockchain contract. Each pair of shares is thus collateralized by one dollar in cryptocurrency, visible on-chain.
Unlike traditional gambling platforms, Polymarket does not profit directly from bets between users. Instead, it sells access to the real-time data generated by its markets. Earlier this year, it also introduced commissions on certain short-term markets, such as bets on Bitcoin’s price movement over the next 15 minutes.
The model has attracted major investors. Last October, Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, invested $2 billion in Polymarket at an $8 billion valuation. Earlier backers include Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.
Still, the platform’s legal and ethical challenges remain significant. Several countries. including France, Portugal, Hungary, Belgium, and Switzerland, have blocked Polymarket, ruling that it facilitates illegal gambling.
In the U.S., regulators initially took a similar view. In January 2022, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined Polymarket $1.4 million, labeled it an illegal exchange, and ordered it to halt operations domestically. The company returned to the U.S. market only toward the end of 2025, after obtaining the necessary regulatory approval.
Polymarket has also faced repeated suspicions of insider trading. Earlier this month, a user wagered $436,000 on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just hours before a U.S. operation led to his arrest. In response, members of Congress began advancing legislation that would bar federal employees from trading on prediction markets.
The broader concern extends beyond legality. As journalists, investors, and institutions increasingly treat betting odds as informational signals, the distinction between facts and forecasts begins to blur. In elections and geopolitical crises, these markets could become tools for manipulating public perception. A wealthy individual, for example, could tilt odds in favor of a preferred candidate, influencing voter behavior, and profiting financially if the strategy succeeds.
For now, Polymarket is largely a game. But it is a game with the potential to become genuinely dangerous.
